As you see in the charts of SPX and SPY ( traded ETF for S&P 500 ) market have a clear move, with higher highs(HH) and higher lows(HL) from 11/09 when Trump was elected as president of US, also we have a accelerated trend line ( with purple on SPY chart).
The prior pivots for trading this week is 2355 and 2400.98 on SPX (235.50, 240.32 for SPY ). As long as SPX hold 2355, stay bullish and watch for follow through to clear 2400.98 level, trading strong sectors/stocks. If bears build up power and broke 2355, see if they hold and watch for follow through to 2351 level and after to 2336 level on SPX ( 235 , 233.50 for SPY), trading weak sectors/stocks. Also a close below 2358.96 ( 236 for SPY ) can give to us a higher probability of a down move, so be patient.
After making my research i was very well prepared for the last week knowing what i gonna do in every possible situation, but in despite of this, i found that my efficiency is still slow because I had too many things to watch, failing to react to what happens now. This caused trading stocks that are not in play because i can’t make differentiate between stocks that move and stocks that not in one or anether specific sector in that today.
Looking at the market all week by watching my stocks i found that if sector broke one of my pivots, usually, all majority of stocks from that sector in my watchlist will move with him, but only the strongest will give a beutifull move with folow through. Also i found in other days that these strong stocks will give me beautiful moves several times in another days in despite of that fact that this sector today is in range and only maintain its gains.
Wee all know the Pareto principle (also known as the 80/20 rule ) states that, for many events, roughly 80% of the effects come from 20% of the causes. So i decided to focus on this 20% following this rule :
It sector broke my pivot watch only stocks that broke their pivots too, focusing all my energy to them , also i can trade them intraday because probability that they will move are very high in regedles of fact that i didn’t expect much from them and at first glance there are no difference between them and stocks that have not broke their pivot. In stocks that didn’t broke their pivot, but remain strong, only buying support bounce are allowed . ( Vice versa for weak stocks )
All things mentioned in my market research are the same, but there’s more caution in the air because meny secotors are overbought as I said.
XLV daily and weekly charts :
IBB daily and weekly charts :
On monday and tuesday we had a great move in Healthcare leaded by biotech sector as IBB broke last week hi. I played this in stocks like AMGN, CELG, EXEL and PTLA mentioned in my market research for biotech .See if IBB will broke and hold above 300 for anover move.
XLU and /CL daily charts :
Also we see that utilites showed some commitment and relative strength on thuesday as we broke 52.75. The prior pivot for now is 51.20, see if they hold and watch for follow through trading strong stocks.
Oil have played a nice support bounce from low of the flag, nothing changed and see if it remain strong.
Gold have showed some weakness and it looks like it needs a little more time to rest. Now the prior pivot is 1237 on /GC.
Also at 9:00 pm ( New York Time ) President Trump Speaks to congress and lets see what he says, maybe this will give some new opportunities tomorrow.
If something will change i will come with an update.
As you see in the XLU daily chart ultilities closed above 51. See if they hold and watch for follow through to 52.75.
But in spite of this, we are extended from the 9day EMA, so we need to be patient trading utilities stocks.In case of gapping up on monday above 52.75 or in another day after clearing this level, we may see a move down in that day as we move further in overbought area, so don’t take too much size playing this sector.In case if bears build up power and broke 51 see if they hold 9 EMA or next level – 49.50.
Electric Utilities :
- Strong Stocks : AEP, GXP, DUK , NEE, EIX, OGE, ETR , PPL ,EXC ..
- Weak Stocks : WR.
- Strong Stocks : AEE, SRE, CMS, CNP, DTE, NII, PEG.
- Weak Stocks : SCG.
Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers :
As you see in the /GC, GLD and SLV daily charts these instruments have broken their downtrends and are ready to go up as long as /GC remain strong and hold his accelerated trendline ( with violet on /GC daily chart ) .
The prior pivots for trading this week are 1261.20 and 1226.8 for /GC, 119.88 and 116.77 for GLD, 17.45 and 16.90 for SLV. As long as /GC hold 1226.8, stay bullish and watch for follow through to clear 1261.20, trading strong stocks. If bears build up power and broke 1261.20, see if they hold and watch for follow through to 1220, trading weak stocks.
As you see on the XLRE daily chart we close above 32. See if bulls hold this important level and watch for follow through to 33.40, trading strong stocks.
I don’t realy see any strong stocks in this sector but are some of them that build nice setups :
VTR, WY, HCN, CCI, PSA, SPG.
Graficul weekly pe EUR/USD ne arata ca trendul global inca este descrestere si totodata vedem ca pretul se afla in zona de support 1.0530-1.0460. Din miscarea pretului in ultimele saptamini mi se formeaza doua scenarii si anume:
- Prin retestul nivelului 1.0800 pretul a confirmat ca v-a continua down-trendul si la intarirea sub zona suportului 1.0530-1.0460, pretul va cadea in continuare;
- In cazul cind pretul nu strabate suportul vom vedea o ascensiune cel putin pina in zona sus a canalului.
Din formatiunea pe care o vad pe graficul Daily de mai jos totusi pentru mine ar fi preferabil sa vad o desfasurare a pretului in long. Oricum reiesind din scenariile descrise mai sus voi actiona in concordanta cu miscarea pretului.